Cover 7 | Saturday A daily NFL destination that provides in-depth analysis of football’s biggest stories. Each Saturday, Jacob Robinson offers 13 insights to help fantasy football managers get set for the week ahead.

Jake Robinson is Editor at the Morning Huddle, where they find the best insights from fantasy football experts and package them into a free, 3x weekly newsletter. In this weekly column, he shares 13 insights that might change your perspective on players.

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Scorecards

Your comments on last week’s article taught me three things.

1. Always consider the gambler’s fallacy in projecting the future. The universe doesn’t have scales that it’s trying to balance. So, when a player underperforms, it’s often unrealistic to expect they’ll over-perform in the future — we should instead expect them to perform in line with their historical averages (which could lead to a slight underperformance across the season).
2. Target players on good offenses. For example, the Packers are a bad offense. They haven’t scored over 20 points in a game since Week 2. Our Matt Schneidman wrote an excellent article explaining why the Jordan Love-to-Christian Watson connection continues to disappoint. Meanwhile, the Cardinals offense might be better than expected, as I detailed last week.
3. The accountability section doesn’t make sense on a week-to-week basis for some insights. There’s no sense in grading a “Javonte Williams is a great buy” when he is going into his bye, but it is worth revisiting that call a few weeks later. This week’s accountability section looks different.

I want to clarify something. When I write that “X will outperform ADP” or “Y is the best ROS acquisition you can make,” there’s always a mental gymnastics, counter-argument in my brain. Sure, X has a great matchup and historically produces well against the coverage his opponent typically runs, but what if the defensive scheme changes? What if his starting QB is hurt? Or worse, what if his starting QB is Desmond Ridder?

But you don’t deserve half-assed insights. And since this column is followed by a “how it went” section, you can trust that I’ll continue to do my best to avoid the ever-present risk of public embarrassment.

See the chart at the bottom of each article highlighting outcomes from previous weeks (Spoiler: I went 6-6).

Now, 13 insights I think you should know for NFL Week 11:

1/13 CeeDee Lamb is looking like a league-winner. The Cowboys offense transformed following their Week 7 bye. And it’s working. They are outscoring opponents 115-65, while passing at league-leading rates (their pass rate on first downs ranks fourth, and their passing rate over expectations since Week 7 of +11.7% would rank first across the season, per Ryan Heath). With a struggling ground game, there’s no reason for them to reverse course.

And, despite Jerry Jones’ opinion, Lamb’s target share has jumped from WR27 to WR1, per Ryan Heath. Lamb became the first WR in NFL history with three straight games of 10+ catches and 150+ yards. Lamb is now chasing Michael Irvin’s single-season Cowboys records for catches (111) and yards (1,603) in a season, which he’s on pace (121-1,751) to surpass. This is the opportunity share Lamb needed to fulfill his WR1 potential. His big Week 10 could have been even bigger (see below) and his playoff schedule is filled with middling defensive units: BUF, MIA and DET — Detroit in Week 17 could be fireworks.

Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb won significant separation on this slant, but because of Giants DE Rakeem Nunez-Roches’ batted ball, he wasn’t rewarded for it. Lamb earned a YAC opportunity here. Big day could have been bigger.

— Michael Gehlken (@GehlkenNFL) November 13, 2023

2/13 Deebo Samuel faces Tampa Bay. That is great news. The Buccaneers’ depleted secondary is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to WRs, the fourth-most yards to outside receivers (132.0), and the second-most yards to slot receivers (102.8), per Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points. The bad news? The Buccaneers use single-high looks at the 10th highest rate in the NFL, and Deebo’s YPRR drops from an elite 2.26 to a pedestrian 0.78 against single-high looks, per Derek Brown of Fantasy Pros.

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But don’t worry. Tampa Bay’s sixth-highest zone coverage tendency spells great things for Deebo this week, as Brandon Aiyuk is the 49ers’ man coverage-beater while Deebo feasts against zone defenses.

3/13 Tank Dell is so impressive. He could go nuclear this week. With Noah Brown (knee) missing Week 11, Dell should see more opportunity than usual. He plays at a different speed, has a great connection with C.J. Stroud and faces a Cardinals defense struggling to stop opposing WRs (allowing the eighth-most receiving yards).

In his three games since the bye week, Dell is WR10 in fantasy points per game and has averaged over 9 targets per game. And rookie WRs are historically better in the second half of seasons.

4/13 What might happen in Buffalo: more James Cook. After the Week 10 loss, the Bills fired OC Ken Dorsey and named Joe Brady as his interim replacement. As our Matthew Fairburn wrote, McDermott said, “I think it’s important [the players] feel, ‘Hey something’s changed, and there’s something new that we can be excited about’ in terms of an opportunity to improve.”

New OC Joe Brady was the Panthers OC from 2020 to 2021. In 2020, Brady coached Teddy Bridgewater to the best season of his career. That year, the Panthers had four different players with 1,000+ scrimmage yards — D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel and Mike Davis. Three WRs over 1,000 yards was a franchise record in Carolina, and they were the first group to accomplish this since Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston, per Colin Thompson. Here’s an interesting article on how Brady used spread concepts to beat defenses.

A big winner is James Cook. They’ll feature Cook more as McDermott has repeatedly mentioned wanting to have the threat of a running game be part of the offense, and Brady made the RB position (with CMC and Mike Davis) a big part of the passing offense in Carolina (video cut up of his schemes) and LSU (heck, look how high Clyde Edwards-Helaire was drafted). But the game plan shouldn’t change that dramatically, especially on a short week.

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5/13 Amari Cooper is not someone you want for the fantasy playoffs. With Deshaun Watson having season-ending shoulder surgery, Cooper’s ceiling takes a serious hit. He’s averaging only 9.1 PPR FPPG without Watson vs. 17.6 with Watson, per @LateRoundQB. With rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson — not P.J. Walker — starting at QB, it’s hard to be optimistic. Cooper posted just 1 catch for 16 yards in Thompson-Robinson’s first start. It doesn’t help that the Browns face an imposing Jets defense in Week 17.

6/13 DeVonta Smith week? This could be it. With  A.J. Brown expected to see plenty of Kansas City’s L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie, Smith will likely face Jaylen Watson often, a CB who is targeted at a 28% clip for a reason. With Smith historically scoring more fantasy points when Dallas Goedert misses time, together with a weak CB matchup, a boom game could be incoming. Also, Jalen Hurts should be healthier coming out of the bye.

7/13 The Steelers RBs are underrated for any playoff-bound teams. After reading Mike DeFabo’s excellent ‘Steelers’ dormant run game has come alive (again)’ article, I want to buy the “early-season underperformance” discount on the Steelers RBs. Remember last year? As Mike noted, “After the Steelers’ offense struggled in the first half of last season, they rebounded to go 7-2 down the stretch in large part because they transformed into the league’s eight-best rushing team after the bye week.” They made critical offensive line changes, emphasized the run game in team meetings and used lighter personnel groupings.

Jaylen Warren leads all qualified rushers in missed tackles forced per attempt, is fifth in yards after contact per attempt and third in explosive run rate (ahead of Christian McCaffrey), per Fantasy Points Data and highlighted by Derek Brown. Prior to Week 10, Jaylen Warren was announced as the starter. He proceeded to turn a season-high 17 touches into a total of 110 yards and a TD. He finished as RB8.

Najee Harris ranks third among rushers with a broken tackle every 7.7 attempts. Despite Warren being named the starter, Harris had a season-high 82 yards on 16 carries in Week 10. He finished as RB9. And although Najee might be a bit more expensive now compared to when I wrote that  Najee Harris is too cheap to not acquire, he’s still worth inquiring about due to his improved passing volume — in Weeks 7-10, Harris is averaging over 3 catches per game. He averaged just 1 catch/game the first five weeks.

After a tough Browns defense in Week 11, the Steelers RBs have an amazing schedule — zero games against top rushing defenses. In Weeks 15, 16 and 17, the Steelers face the Colts, Bengals and Seahawks, all below-average run defenses.

8/13 David Montgomery is the oldest 26-year old ever. I want him on my playoff-bound teams. Despite Montgomery only playing above 45% of snaps in three games this season, he’s finished as a Top 16 RB four times. In Week 10, he had 17.6 PPR points despite only 12 touches and allowing Jahmyr Gibbs to take a sure TD.

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The Lions trust Montgomery so much they ran it with him on 4th-and-5 (and he converted). While no one will confuse him with Gibbs, Montgomery has enough explosiveness to break 75-yard TDs. In a revenge game against the Bears this week, Montgomery managers might be worried about Gibbs. Fear not, the Lions offense can support both.

9/13 Ty Chandler put together a solid performance in Week 10, posting a 15-45-1 rushing line and had a 30-ish yard TD called back. Most importantly (and sadly), Alexander Mattison suffered a concussion and is expected to miss the Broncos matchup in Week 11. Chandler looked explosive, got a game ball and had as many carries as Mattison before the starter left the game. Chandler is the better receiver and could realistically win this role outright.

10/13 Rico Dowdle, the Cowboys’ backup RB, is more efficient than the starter. He’ll get more chances. As Saad Yousef of The Athletic wrote, “Pollard is not a prototypical feature back and the Cowboys don’t need to force him in that role. Dowdle is a physical back who is better suited running between the tackles, lowering his shoulders and falling forward than Pollard.” Dowdle looked better between the tackles (see chart below) and was more efficient than Pollard; 12 of Pollard’s 15 carries amounted to just 16 yards, while Dowdle took 12 carries for 79 yards and a TD.

“I love Rico’s run style,” said HC Mike McCarthy. More work should be on the horizon for Dowdle, whose 71.3 PFF rating on Sunday beat Bijan Robinson (67.1) and Saquon Barkley (70.2). And this may be a good thing for a “must not be fully healthy” Tony Pollard (66.9), who could revert to his more explosive, change of pace role. Check every league.

11/13 Remember Zach Evans? Stash him this week. Many expected Evans to become the Rams starter once Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers went down. It didn’t happen. Worse, Evans didn’t play. But there could be hope for Evans after HC Sean McVay said this:

“Zach Evans is another guy that I’m intrigued to see if he gets an opportunity to get some carries towards the second half of the season.” “He’s gotten better and better and practice, and then see if he gets an opportunity to get out there.”

Following the Rams bye, Week 11 against the Seahawks (still without Kyren Williams) might offer the last chance for Evans to prove himself this season. Drop him if he doesn’t do anything.

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12/13 A.T. Perry might be nothing but has upside. Perry caught 2 of 4 targets for 38 yards and an impressive, get Moss’d TD in Michael Thomas’ absence. With Thomas’ knee injury being considered “significant,” the 6-foot-5 Perry could be an intriguing red zone target — especially if Jameis Winston is QB. Perry and Josh Downs were the only two Power 5 WRs from this year’s class to record multiple 1,000-yard seasons, per Scott Barrett. Matt Harmon called him a Nico Collins-ish WR. The rookie still has things to work on (see this video) but should see continued opportunities with Michael Thomas injured — Perry ran 42/47 routes last week.

WELCOME TO THE NFL AT PERRY GIMME MORE OF THIS

— Trizzy Trace (@tracegirouard48) November 12, 2023

13/13 If it’s not obvious by now, the most valuable bench players you can hold are handcuff RBs. Here’s a list of RB stashes who could see meaningful work if the starter misses time.

1. Zach Charbonnet
2. Tyjae Spears
3. Ezekiel Elliott
4. Jerick McKinnon
5. Kareem Hunt
6. Tank Bigsby
7. Zamir White
8. Michael Carter
9. Chase Edmonds

As a final note, please call me a doctor if Christian Watson flops again this week.

Good luck this weekend, and go get some wins!

Accountability: Weeks 7-10 

Pre-Week 10: DK Metcalf should have a WEEK.
Verdict: Metcalf had his best finish of the season (WR17), catching 7 passes for 98 yards. But if you write “week” in all caps, you expect better. L. (0-1).

Pre-Week 10: It seems obvious to start Davante Adams and sit Jakobi Meyers with Aidan O’Connell. You should probably avoid both this week (if you have a better option than Adams).
Verdict: Adams finished the week as WR24 and Meyers was much worse (WR67). But 6 catches for 86 yards for Adams isn’t a full avoid. W. (1-1).

Pre-Week 10: Alexander Mattison can breathe a little easier.
Verdict: Pre-Alexander Mattison concussion, Mattison had 30 snaps to Ty Chandler’s 17. They both had 8 carries (per JJ Zachariason). Another L. (1-2).

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Pre-Week 10: I’ve seen people give up on Christian Watson. That’s crazy. This is the exact time you want to be buying.
Verdict: If you bought last week, you bought way too early. L. Still, he faces a beatable Chargers secondary this week. Am I crazy for still stashing him (and even starting him in one league)? Bruh. (1-3).

Pre-Week 10: Will Levis has a prime matchup and is a strong bye-week filler.
Verdict: Wrong. Not that guy in Week 10. (1-4).

Pre-Week 9: Chris Olave, where are you? The Saints WR might be the best buy there is.
Verdict: Olave has since had back to back Top 10 WR finishes in 0.5 PPR leagues. W. (2-4).

Pre-Week 9: ​​Javonte Williams is a great buy. A Top 15 RB finish is realistic.
Verdict: Williams was given a heavy workload coming off a bye in another Broncos victory. 25 total touches and finished as RB5 in PPR leagues. W. (3-4).

Pre-Week 9: Is Trey McBride the next TE1?
Verdict: It looks like it. Kyler Murray peppered McBride with targets and the TE finished with 131 yards on 9 targets. W. (4-4).

Pre-Week 8: Isiah Pacheco is quietly the RB8. A Top 10 RB finish is possible.
Verdict: Pacheco had 43 total yards in Week 8 and 66 in Week 9. No TDs in either. A Top 10 RB finish is looking less likely, especially given the Chiefs’ tendency to unlock Jerrick McKinnon at the end of the regular season. (4-5)

Pre-Week 8: Stop overreacting to Brock Purdy’s INTs.
Verdict: Over 18 points in Week 8 and Week 10, finishing as QB6 in Week 10 — looking good. W. (5-5)

Pre-Week 7: Jahmyr Gibbs is not this year’s 2017 Alvin Kamara. “We’ll need to see a significant increase in receiving work for Gibbs to justify the third round draft capital,” I said for the 12th time as she packed up the car and left with the kids.
Verdict: Since reading this column prior to Week 7, Gibbs has finished RB3, RB1 and RB2. His passing game involvement jumped significantly (which was my main concern). Convinced Gibbs did this to spite me, this is a massive L. (5-6).

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Pre-Week 7: Tyler Lockett will remind us that he was underrated (again).
Verdict: Lockett was WR44 at the time. He’s currently WR23 in PPR. Yeah, he’s doing it again. W. (6-6).

(Photo of CeeDee Lamb: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports)