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Can Ohio State lose to Michigan but make the CFP? Buckeyes’ biggest concern? Mailbag

Writer Jessica Cortez

Ohio State is preparing to play Minnesota on Saturday, but . . . the Buckeyes are 27.5-point favorites. Everybody outside the program already has their eyes on next weekend’s matchup of Buckeyes versus Wolverines in Ann Arbor.

I figured this would be a good week for a mailbag, and sure enough you submitted plenty of questions. I’m going to try and keep my answers short so I can get to all of them.

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Let’s get into it.

Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity. 

If Ohio State loses to Michigan this year, will they replace Ryan Day with Mike Vrabel? — Andre E.

No. Ryan Day isn’t getting fired with Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith already on the way out. Maybe we’ll revisit this question after the season, but I feel pretty strongly about where things stand.

Are there any realistic scenarios where OSU loses to Michigan but makes it into the CFP top 4? — John B.

I was talking about this with a few other beat writers on Tuesday, and there IS a scenario where this happens. Admittedly, it’s very far-fetched, but there’s a slight chance. A lot would need to happen, however.

• Ohio State needs Georgia to run the table and beat one-loss Alabama in the SEC title game.

• Michigan would likely go undefeated, so those are the top two spots gone.

• From there, Ohio State needs Washington to lose prior to the Pac-12 title game (which could happen this week against Oregon State). That would make Washington a one-loss team, but if the Huskies beat Oregon in the title game, that would still likely put them above Ohio State. So Oregon also needs to take a second regular-season loss and then beat Washington in the title game, so that both teams have two losses.

• If Florida State loses in the ACC title game, does the committee like the Noles over Ohio State, purely because of that Seminoles title game appearance? I think Ohio State’s resume would be better, but if FSU loses to a one-loss Louisville team in the ACC title game, does that change things altogether? I don’t see the Seminoles losing two games, so let’s just put them into the Playoff in the third slot for hypothetical purposes.

• That leaves one spot, and Texas is a one-loss team right now. The Longhorns have the Alabama win, and they would have a Big 12 title in this fact pattern. I think Ohio State needs Texas to drop a game as well, maybe in the Big 12 title game.

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If all of that happens, Ohio State will be one of two one-loss teams and should get in. That’s a lot, right?

I don’t see Florida State losing this year, though. I also don’t think Washington loses two games before the end of the season.

Ohio State just needs to beat Michigan and avoid a repeat of last year.

What is OSU’s biggest concern headed into the Game? To me, it’s whether the run defense will hold up. — James S.

Yeah, I think it’s the run defense. Tommy Eichenberg should be back — which is great because Ohio State will need him. It’s less about the defensive tackles than it is about the linebackers being out of their gaps. We’ve seen that at times this year, but the safeties have stepped up to produce big tackles. If Eichenberg returns, that’s a big help, and then they can rotate Cody Simon and Steele Chambers.

I also worry about the offensive line holding up, both in pass protection and to set up the run. I don’t think Michigan’s defensive line is as good as Penn State’s, but the Wolverines are fourth nationally with a 43.2 percent pressure rate, per TruMedia.

They also stop the run very well. The Wolverines are giving up 1.18 yards before contact per running back rush, 16th nationally. Ohio State averages 1.82 yards before contact, but it has gone over that average the past two weeks — averaging 3.08 yards before contact against Rutgers and 1.85 yards against Michigan State. Those were two of Ohio State’s three best rushing games of the season (it ran for 2.1 yards before contact against Purdue).

I think Ohio State’s run game is improving, but it has to prove itself against Michigan in order to stay on schedule.

Everything starts in the trenches for Ohio State, because I think it has the better skill position players, by far.

With Lathan Ransom out and no word on Michael Hall up the middle, how concerned should Buckeyes fans be about sealing the edge against Michigan as regards runs to the border? — Erin P.

The most concerning thing I saw last week was how Michigan State was able to break off a few big runs to the outside. All it takes is one such defensive lapse against Michigan.

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Like I said above, my worry is the linebackers. The return of Josh Proctor will be a big help, however, and Sonny Styles is a fine replacement for the missing Ransom.

That being said, things like this from Steele Chambers can’t happen:

This is a counter that catches Chambers going the wrong way, and because of that he misses his gap. He recovers well, but still gets sealed inside by the pulling blocker because he jumped the wrong gap. That springs the Michigan State running back for 25 yards. Ohio State could get away with this against MSU, but these sort of mistakes will get the Buckeyes beaten by Michigan.

This is also where getting Eichenberg back helps, because then the Buckeyes can rotate Simon and Chambers.

I would say this is my biggest concern, but even so the linebacking corps didn’t create huge issues against Penn State.

Matthew Jones took some snaps at center vs. MSU. Any chance OSU tries a new offensive line combination vs. Minnesota given Carson Hinzman’s struggles? (PFF grades below 50 for the last three games.) — Kevin W.

I don’t think so, but Day didn’t rule it out when asked about it on Tuesday. He said that they worked Jones at center just to see what it would look like, in case they did need to make a change.

But he then went on to add that Hinzman has shown progress, and that he has a bright future.

I think Saturday’s game against Minnesota will tell a lot there, but I have a hard time believing they’ll move Jones inside this late in the year — especially with how inconsistent Josh Fryar is at right tackle. Revamping the entire right side of the line this late wouldn’t be the right move, in my opinion.

In the current CFB environment, would OSU plan to continue to develop McCord next year or would they go to the portal? — Jonathan O.

I think it’s very easy to say, “Go get a better quarterback in the portal,” but there’s so much that goes into these things. Why is the hypothetical new QB transferring? How much experience do they have? Are they good enough to come play at Ohio State right away? Not every transfer will be Joe Burrow or Justin Fields.

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I think McCord has shown some really good progress this season. He ranks second in the Big Ten in completion rate, second in passing efficiency, second in passing yards per game and third in passing touchdowns. He’s 12th nationally in efficiency, and Ohio State ranks 19th in yards per play.

We’ll see how the season finishes out, but I like the growth from McCord. There are high expectations for Ohio State quarterbacks, I get it, but I don’t think there’s reason to move on from McCord unless you know there’s a top quarterback in the portal, with high-level starter experience.

Do you foresee Jeremiah Smith flipping to FSU? — Shawn T.

Is Brian Hartline going to Florida State? These things are never a lock, and I know there’s a lot of noise about the Seminoles flipping him, but as long as Hartline is at Ohio State, I think the Buckeyes are in good shape with the five-star receiver and No. 1 prospect in the country.

Do you feel like this year we match up vs. TTUN quite well? I feel like our DEs are good run defenders, and their tackles struggled vs PSU. Last question, besides the obvious of beating TTUN, what are some other motivational things they can use to “get them up”? Feels like TTUN is riding a wave of anger with all that is happening, and would like some quote or other thing to use for the Buckeyes to really feed the fire. — John J.

First, Ohio State has the easiest motivation possible. You tell the players that the only reason Michigan beat them the past two years was because the Wolverines cheated. Now’s their chance to go prove it. If that doesn’t get them pumped up then nothing will, but I don’t think lack of motivation will be a problem. I have a feeling this matchup is going to be even more fiery than normal due to the sign-stealing saga.

Second, after watching the Penn State game, I think Ohio State is more evenly matched with Michigan than I had previously thought. I think JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer could wreak havoc on the Michigan passing attack. The key, again, is the linebackers staying in their gaps and stopping the run. But I love the secondary versus Michigan’s playmakers, and if they can contain McCarthy then I think the Buckeyes have a good chance. One thing to watch will be how Michigan moves the pocket to enable McCarthy to use his legs — opening throwing lanes downfield — rather than utilizing traditional dropback passes.

The offense is coming along, and I think Day focuses on getting the ball out of McCord’s hand quickly. If they can do that then I think Ohio State has a good chance.

I do expect a low-scoring game, though, much like Penn State.

Ace recruiter Brian Hartline is in his first year as offensive coordinator. (Ben Jackson / Getty Images)

After nearly a full season of watching the offense underperform (when compared to what Ohio State fans are accustomed to), is it time to start discussing what Kevin Wilson brought to team and Hartline’s shortcomings as an OC? — Austin G.

Hartline’s shortcomings based on what? His running an offense with a new quarterback and two new offensive tackles, all as a first-year coordinator? I don’t think that’s a discussion we need to have, no.

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This season says more about former offensive line coach Greg Studrawa’s shortcomings as a recruiter. The offensive line depth is gone, and that’s been an adjustment for the entire offense.

This was always going to be a different team than the previous ones. It’s OK to lean on your defense.

If things are bad next year as well, then we can have that conversation. But to question whether a first-year coordinator has shortcomings as an OC when he’s not even calling the plays? That would be premature. There are more things impacting the offense than how Hartline is organizing and game-planning, especially when you consider the number of injuries Ohio State has suffered so far this season.

How serious is the Michael Hall injury? Long term, short term? — Bm S.

Day said he didn’t have an update the last time we talked to him, but the way it sounds I’d be surprised if he plays against Minnesota on Saturday. We’ll get into this more on Friday, in the game preview, but Ty Hamilton will have to step up. Thankfully he’s been good this year, and there is depth inside right now. So while you can’t replace the sheer freak athleticism and NFL talent that Hall brings to the line, there are still some bodies there that can collectively get the job done this weekend.

Are we recruiting OL, particularly tackle, any better? It’s the glaring weakness on the team. — Peter W.

The biggest name to watch right now is still Jordan Seaton, the No. 1 tackle in the class according to the 247Sports Composite. Ohio State is a finalist for Seaton, and he was supposed to visit for the Michigan State game but didn’t show due to a conflict with practice. IMG Academy’s season ends on Friday, but he’s visiting Tennessee this weekend. We’ll see if the Buckeyes can still pull it off.

(Top photo of Marvin Harrison Jr.: Ben Jackson / Getty Images)