College football bowl projections: The Big 12 (sorry, Texas) left out of the CFP
Scarlett Howard 
With just five weeks left in the regular season, we’ll be publishing a new set of bowl projections every Tuesday the rest of the way.
Our College Football Playoff lineup consists of Georgia, Michigan, Florida State and Oregon, which beats Washington in a Pac-12 rematch. We’re predicting the Big 12 champion, Texas, gets left out. We rewarded the Longhorns with a trip to the Cotton Bowl, though it means a second consecutive year of facing Michael Penix Jr. in a bowl. We figured that’s still more appealing than a Fiesta Bowl matchup versus Air Force.
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Some fun mid-level matchups include USC–Oklahoma State in San Antonio, Miami-Oregon State (The Dennis Erickson Bowl) in San Diego and — get this — a Rutgers-Clemson Pinstripe Bowl.
Finally, some good news for those concerned about James Madison. As of now we’re projecting the NCAA to fall four teams short on eligible 6-6 teams, which would allow the Dukes to make it as a “18.7.2.1.3 Exception.” (Yes, that is a real bylaw.) We have them against Liberty in a potential Cure Bowl matchup of undefeated Group of 5 teams. Jacksonville State would also qualify under this rule. The two projected 5-7 teams to make it (based on highest APR score): Northwestern and Wake Forest.
The three projected 5-7 teams to make it (based on highest APR score): Northwestern, Wake Forest and, for a second consecutive year, Rice.
Friendly reminder: Most bowls do not have to choose in order of conference standings. When you see Virginia Tech listed as “ACC No. 3,” it does not mean that we think the 4-4 Hokies will finish third in the conference, but rather that the Pop Tarts Bowl uses its No. 3 pick to select them.
The fine print:
*Replacement for a conference without enough eligible teams
** Projected 5-7 team
New Year's Six
| BOWL | DATE | TEAMS | LOCATION | TIME |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cotton | Dec. 29 | Washington (at-large) vs. Texas (Big 12) | Arlington, Tex. | 8 p.m. |
Peach | Dec. 30 | Alabama (at-large) vs. Notre Dame (at-large) | Atlanta | Noon |
Orange | Dec. 30 | Louisville (ACC) vs. Ohio State (SEC/B1G/ND) | Miami | 4 p.m. |
Fiesta | Jan. 1 | Oklahoma (at-large) vs. Air Force (Group of 5) | Glendale, Ariz. | 1 p.m. |
Rose | Jan. 1 | No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Florida State | Pasadena, Calif. | 5 p.m. |
Sugar | Jan. 1 | No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Oregon | New Orleans | 8:45 p.m. |
Remaining Bowls
| BOWL | DATE | TEAM | TEAM | LOCATION | TIME |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Independence | Dec. 16 | TCU (Big 12 No. 7) | Washington State (Pac-12 No. 7) | Shreveport, La. | 9:15 p.m. |
LA Bowl | Dec. 16 | UCLA (Pac-12 No. 6) | UNLV (MWC No. 1) | Inglewood, Calif. | 7:30 p.m. |
New Mexico | Dec. 16 | Wyoming (MWC) | Coastal Carolina (ESPN) | Albuquerque, N.M. | 5:45 p.m. |
Cure | Dec. 16 | Liberty (ESPN) | James Madison (ESPN) | Orlando, Fla. | 3:30 p.m. |
New Orleans | Dec. 16 | Louisiana (Sun Belt) | New Mexico State (C-USA) | New Orleans | 2:15 p.m. |
Bahamas | Dec. 16 | Central Michigan (MAC) | Jacksonville State* (C-USA) | Nassau, Bahamas | 11 a.m. |
Myrtle Beach | Dec. 18 | Georgia State (ESPN) | FAU (ESPN) | Myrtle Beach, S.C. | 2:30 p.m. |
Frisco | Dec. 19 | Texas State (ESPN) | NIU (ESPN) | Frisco, Tex. | 9 p.m. |
Boca Raton | Dec. 21 | Troy (ESPN) | Toledo (ESPN) | Boca Raton, Fla. | 8 p.m. |
Gasparilla | Dec. 22 | USF (ESPN) | Maryland* (ESPN) | Tampa, Fla. | 6:30 p.m. |
Hawaii | Dec. 23 | Boise State (MWC) | Marshall (AAC) | Honolulu | 10:30 p.m. |
Vegas | Dec. 23 | Utah (Pac-12 No. 3) | Iowa (Big Ten No. 3) | Las Vegas | 7:30 p.m. |
68 Ventures | Dec. 23 | Georgia Southern (Sun Belt) | Western Kentucky (C-USA) | Mobile, Ala. | 7 p.m. |
Idaho Potato | Dec. 23 | Colorado State (MWC) | Bowling Green (MAC) | Boise, Idaho | 3:30 p.m. |
Armed Forces | Dec. 23 | West Virginia (ESPN) | SMU (ESPN) | Fort Worth, Tex. | 3:30 p.m. |
Birmingham | Dec. 23 | Tulane (AAC) | Auburn (SEC No. 9) | Birmingham, Ala. | Noon |
Camellia | Dec. 23 | Eastern Michigan (ESPN) | South Alabama (ESPN) | Montgomery, Ala. | Noon |
Guaranteed Rate | Dec. 26 | Nebraska (Big Ten No. 6) | BYU (Big 12 No. 6) | Phoenix, Ariz. | 9 p.m. |
First Responder | Dec. 26 | Northwestern** (Big 12 No. 8) | UTSA (ESPN) | University Park, Tex. | 5:30 p.m. |
Quick Lane | Dec. 26 | Minnesota (Big Ten No. 7) | Ohio (MAC) | Detroit | 2 p.m. |
Texas | Dec. 27 | Kansas (Big 12 No. 4) | Texas A&M (SEC Nos. 3-8) | Houston | 9 p.m. |
Holiday | Dec. 27 | Miami (ACC Nos. 4-6) | Oregon State (Pac-12 No. 4) | San Diego, Calif. | 8 p.m. |
Duke's Mayo | Dec. 27 | LSU (SEC Nos. 3-8) | Duke (ACC Nos. Nos. 4-6) | Charlotte, N.C. | 5:30 p.m. |
Military | Dec. 27 | Navy (AAC) | Georgia Tech (ACC No. 9) | Annapolis, Md. | 2 p.m. |
Alamo | Dec. 28 | Oklahoma State (Big 12 No. 2) | USC (Pac-12 No. 2) | San Antonio | 9:15 p.m. |
Pop Tarts | Dec. 28 | Kansas State (Big 12 No. 3) | Virginia Tech (ACC No. 3) | Orlando, Fla. | 5:45 p.m. |
Pinstripe | Dec. 28 | Rutgers (Big Ten No. 5) | Clemson (ACC No. 7) | Bronx, N.Y. | 2:15 p.m. |
Fenway | Dec. 28 | Wake Forest** (ACC No. 10) | Memphis (AAC) | Boston | 11 a.m. |
Liberty | Dec. 29 | Iowa State (Big 12 No. 5) | Kentucky (SEC Nos. 3-8) | Memphis, Tenn. | 3:30 p.m. |
Sun | Dec. 29 | Boston College (ACC No. 8) | Arizona (Pac-12 No. 5) | El Paso, Tex. | 2 p.m. |
Gator | Dec. 29 | NC State (ACC Nos. 4-6) | Florida (SEC Nos. 3-8) | Jacksonville, Fla. | Noon |
Arizona | Dec. 30 | Fresno State (MWC) | Miami of Ohio (MAC) | Tucson, Ariz. | 4:30 p.m. |
Music City | Dec. 30 | Wisconsin (Big Ten No. 4) | Missouri (SEC Nos. 3-8) | Nashville, Tenn. | 2 p.m. |
Citrus | Jan. 1 | Penn State (Big Ten No. 2) | Ole Miss (SEC No. 2) | Orlando, Fla. | 1 p.m. |
ReliaQuest | Jan. 1 | North Carolina (ACC No. 2) | Tennessee (SEC Nos. 3-8) | Tampa, Fla. | Noon |
(Top photo of the Cure Bowl logo: David Rosenblum / Icon Sportswire via Getty)
