When was the last time the Mets’ payroll wasn’t a major topic of conversation entering the offseason?

For years under the Wilpons, the payroll was as much a scorecard as the final standings. Under Steve Cohen, the first few winters have stood in stark juxtaposition to that prior parsimony, setting records along the way.

Advertisement

This offseason, it doesn’t feel as if everyone is anxiously awaiting what the number is going to be. High, yes, and maybe even higher than last year, depending on how aggressive David Stearns wants to be in his first offseason as president of baseball operations and whether you count the luxury tax penalties. But specifying an exact number is more superfluous than it has been in some time.

However, I’ve long thought it important to foreground an offseason by establishing where the payroll is now, what can be done about it before the meat of free agency kicks in and what different budgets could mean for the roster. As the Mets well know, $340 million doesn’t necessarily buy you more than a much smaller number if you’re shopping in free agency.

So over the next two days, we’ll look at the Mets’ payroll entering this winter and the different directions it could go under Stearns.

Where do the Mets stand now?

The Mets have eight players on guaranteed contracts for next season — 10 if you count the player options for Omar Narváez and Adam Ottavino. (Narváez’s option is a slam dunk to be exercised, Ottavino’s is likelier than not.) Brooks Raley has a club option.

If Raley’s option is exercised, as it likely will be, those numbers in the bottom row would increase by $5.25 million apiece.

The Mets will also be paying five players who will be plying their trade elsewhere, so long as Eduardo Escobar’s club option is declined by the Angels.

NOTE: Yes, yes, I too recognize the absurdity of labeling one thing as “Sum” and another as “Total” in the same table. Here, “Sum” is the addition of all the above numbers in this table, and “Total” adds that to the “Sum” in the first table here as a running count.

And then there’s New York’s massive class of arbitration-eligible players. Pete Alonso is the headliner, obviously, and he’s in line to make about as much as the other 15 players listed here combined. (Arbitration estimates are courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors.)

Finally, for the luxury-tax payroll we have to add an estimate of a little more than $17 million for player benefits and the pre-arbitration bonus pool. That brings the Mets’ current likely commitments to next season around $245 million in on-field payroll and $276 million toward the luxury tax. (And again, more than $5 million higher for each number if they exercise Raley’s option as expected.) The luxury tax is set at $237 million next season; the draft-pick penalties would kick in at $277 million.

Advertisement

The Mets would be spending that much on a roster that would rely significantly on youngsters in the lineup and on relatively inexperienced arms in the rotation. You’ve got to squint awfully hard to envision it coming anywhere close to Atlanta or Philadelphia in the division, and it doesn’t quite fit Stearns’ definition of being competitive in 2024.

Can the Mets trim payroll heading into free agency?

First up, the Mets are not going to tender contracts to all of those arbitration-eligible players. They might not tender deals to more than half of them. However, the savings here are not going to be large. Designating for assignment or non-tendering even eight of the 16 arbitration-eligible players would save about $12 million in salary — and half of that would go toward league-minimum replacements on the roster.

A (much) more extreme path would be to decline the option on Raley and look to move players like Alonso, Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil. No part of that plan would be recommended, as the team would be (much) worse and the savings would not tangibly benefit the future.

What are the Mets’ commitments beyond 2024?

The Mets could have a good amount of money coming off the books next winter if they don’t plan on extending Alonso. That would save his roughly $22 million salary moving forward. New York will also see its dead money (money owed to players not on the team) decrease from that $56 million number to $17.5 million (if Justin Verlander’s option vests with Houston and is exercised) or to zero. They’ll also have José Quintana, Narváez, Ottavino and Raley hitting free agency, freeing up around $33 million more.

Add all that up, and more than $100 million could be off the books next winter.

Beyond that, the Mets have more longer-term commitments than this time last year, thanks to deals with Brandon Nimmo, Kodai Senga, Edwin Díaz and McNeil. This is what those players are owed after the 2024 season.

Here’s how it breaks down by year:

(Photo of Steve Cohen and David Stearns: Gordon Donovan / Associated Press)