Mets 2023 MLB Draft preview: Can New York capitalize on a deep class?
Matthew Cannon
After selecting twice in the first 14 picks of the 2022 MLB Draft, the Mets will have to wait quite a bit longer to make their mark this year. New York’s first pick is not until No. 32, 10 spots lower than it would have been had its payroll been lower. The other 29 teams will all have a crack before the Mets are on the clock.
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However, the Mets do possess seven selections in the top 135 picks, thanks to a trio of compensation picks. This year’s draft thus offers them a solid chance to boost the depth of their farm system, long its lagging trait.
Read Keith Law’s latest MLB mock draft.
Where do the Mets pick?
First Round: No. 32
Second Round: No. 56
Third Round: No. 91 and No. 101 (compensation for not signing their third-round pick, Brandon Sproat, last season)
Fourth Round: No. 123, No. 134 (compensation for Jacob deGrom signing in Texas) and No. 135 (compensation for Chris Bassitt signing in Toronto)
Fifth Round: No. 159
Sixth Round: No. 186
Seventh Round: No. 216
Eighth Round: No. 246
Ninth Round: No. 276
Tenth Round: No. 306
Eleventh Round: No. 336
Twelfth Round: No. 366
Thirteenth Round: No. 396
Fourteenth Round: No. 426
Fifteenth Round: No. 456
Sixteenth Round: No. 486
Seventeenth Round: No. 516
Eighteenth Round: No. 546
Nineteenth Round: No. 576
Twentieth Round: No. 606
The Mets will have $8,440,400 in pool money to pay signing bonuses to their picks in the top 10 rounds — about $5 million less than they had for their picks last season. Penalties kick in if they exceed that amount by more than 5 percent (or $422,020). So functionally, New York can spend right around $8.86 million without incurring penalties.
Who’s the best player ever drafted at each of those picks?
Players selected by Baseball Reference’s wins above replacement:
No. 32: Aaron Judge (NY Yankees, 2013)
No. 56: Jimmy Key (Toronto, 1982)
No. 91: Jim Beattie (NY Yankees, 1975)
No. 101: Jonathan Lucroy (Milwaukee, 2007)
No. 123: Steve Sparks (Milwaukee, 1987)
No. 134: Corey Kluber (Cleveland, 2007)
No. 135: Jamie Moyer (Chicago Cubs, 1984)
No. 159: Charlie Hough (Los Angeles, 1966)
No. 186: Trevor Wilson (San Francisco, 1985)
No. 216: David Ross (Los Angeles, 1998)
No. 246: Paul Goldschmidt (Arizona, 2009)
No. 276: Chase Anderson (Arizona, 2009)
No. 306: Marlon Byrd (Philadelphia, 1999)
No. 336: Bobby Higginson (Detroit, 1992)
No. 366: Gary Matthews (San Diego, 1993)
No. 396: Keone Kela (Texas, 2012)
No. 426: Ryan Church (Cleveland, 2000)
No. 456: David Newhan (Oakland, 1995)
No. 486: Ron Mahay (Boston, 1991)
No. 516: Jerry Blevins (Chicago Cubs, 2004)
No. 546: No major-leaguers
No. 576: Danny Valencia (Minnesota, 2006)
No. 606: Terrance Gore (Kansas City, 2011)
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How is the Mets’ first-round pick all the way down at No. 32?
You know the financial penalties for exceeding the luxury tax threshold by as much as the Mets have the past two seasons. One other penalty: If you exceed the tax threshold by more than $40 million, which the Mets did last season, your first draft pick drops 10 slots. The Mets would have had the No. 22 pick otherwise.
Will that pick drop 10 spots next season as well?
Yes, with one possible exception. The Mets are more than $40 million over the tax threshold again, and so their first pick next season will drop 10 spots — unless that pick is in the top six in the draft. The most recent collective bargaining agreement instituted a draft lottery for the top six picks, so there will be a chance, however slim, that the Mets land a top-six pick as long as they miss the postseason. For instance, the Twins finished with the sport’s 13th-worst record last season but moved all the way up to the fifth pick in the draft thanks to the lottery.
Any insight into the Mets’ success stories?
Over the last few years, I have written:
(I also wrote about the process behind the selection of Jarred Kelenic, if you’re up for that.)
What’s different about the Mets’ amateur scouting department this year?
As Will Sammon reported in January, the Mets promoted Drew Toussaint to director of amateur and international scouting. Toussaint has been in the organization for more than a decade, working his way from a part-time scout to a regional supervisor to a national crosschecker before this latest promotion.
In Toussaint’s first draft as a full-time scout with the Mets in 2013, he signed Jeff McNeil.
Marc Tramuta, who had previously served as the director of amateur scouting, is now a senior advisor in amateur and international scouting. Tommy Tanous remains the vice president of amateur and international scouting.
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How have the Mets drafted under their current amateur scouting department?
Since Tanous and Tramuta joined the Mets in 2012, New York’s top picks have been:
2012: Gavin Cecchini (No. 12 overall), Kevin Plawecki (No. 35 overall)
2013: Dominic Smith (11)
2014: Michael Conforto (10)
2015: Desmond Lindsay (53)
2016: Justin Dunn (19), Anthony Kay (31)
2017: David Peterson (20)
2018: Jarred Kelenic (6)
2019: Brett Baty (12)
2020: Pete Crow-Armstrong (19)
2021: Kumar Rocker (10, unsigned)
2022: Kevin Parada (11), Jett Williams (14)
Where were the Mets’ current homegrown big-leaguers drafted?
First Round
Brandon Nimmo, 2011 (No. 13 overall)
David Peterson, 2017 (20)
Brett Baty, 2019 (12)
Second Round
Pete Alonso, 2016 (64)
Tenth Round
Luis Guillorme, 2013 (296)
Twelfth Round
Jeff McNeil, 2013 (356)
Do the Mets have a drafting philosophy?
They’ve leaned lately toward high school hitters with their early picks: Four of their past six first-round picks have been high school position players, with Rocker and Parada the exceptions. This drafting department has not taken a high school pitcher in the first round, and the Mets as an organization have not selected a high school pitcher in the first round since 2011 and Michael Fulmer (if you count the erstwhile sandwich round) or 2002 and Scott Kazmir (if you don’t).
What does this year’s draft look like?
Exceptionally deep, especially on the college side. The Athletic’s Keith Law called it the best draft class he’s seen since 2011. That’s in part a byproduct of the shorter, five-round draft back in 2020.
What’s the state of the Mets’ farm system?
In February, Law ranked the system 15th in the sport, attributing that ranking to excellent drafting and some significant finds in international free agency. To be as high as 15th is pretty remarkable, considering the Mets have traded away first-round picks from 2016 (two), 2018 and 2020, as well as second-round picks from 2018, 2019 and 2020 (two). Another prospect they traded, catcher Endy Rodríguez, has since blossomed into a top-100 prospect.
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For several years, the Mets’ system has been top-heavy, with a bunch of impact prospects either in or around the top 100 in the sport and then a steep drop to the next tier. New York has started to close that tier slightly, but it’s also graduating a few of those impact prospects to the major-league level in Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty — Law’s top two in the system back in February.
Alvarez and Baty represent the start of a position player group nearing the majors: Mark Vientos has been up twice now, and Ronny Mauricio is a viable candidate for a promotion this season. With the exception of Mike Vasil, who was recently promoted to Triple A, New York’s best pitching prospects are a couple of steps away, and the club could use more homegrown depth on the mound.
Who are some players to keep an eye on?
In Law’s latest mock draft, he has the Mets selecting prep shortstop George Lombard Jr., the son of current Tigers bench coach George Lombard Sr. Lombard Jr. is currently committed to Vanderbilt.
FanGraphs’ most recent mock draft has Vandy center fielder Enrique Bradfield Jr. going to the Mets. MLB.com’s latest mock has New York taking Kent State left-handed pitcher Joe Whitman. (Whitman’s pitching coach with the Golden Flashes? Former Met Mike Birkbeck.)
University of Florida right-hander Brandon Sproat, whom the Mets drafted in the third round last year and could not sign, might be available in that area as well if New York wanted to try again.
(Photo of George Lombard Jr. during the 2022 Perfect Game All-American Classic: Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)