In this week’s column, Greg Scholz  looks at how ready Aaron Jones and Darren Waller will be to return within the next two weeks… and more.

Before we dive in, here’s a quick glossary of terms commonly used by Inside Injuries:

• IRC = Injury Risk Category (three designations: “Low,” “Elevated,” “High”) — the overall likelihood a player will get injured
• HPF = Health Performance Factor (Peak, Above Average, Below Average, Poor) — our metric to predict player performance
• ORT = Optimal Recovery Time — the amount of time a player needs to fully recover from an injury (not the same as how much time they will actually miss).

Q: Is there any chance Aaron Jones comes back this week? If so, is he playable? — Trevor M.

There is a good chance he plays this week, but we don’t expect him to reach Optimal Recovery (ORT) before then. If he does play, expect either a snap count or some limited production. Besides not reaching ORT, the rest of his metrics don’t look great either. His Injury Risk remains High and his Health Performance Factor is Below Average, though this could improve with full participation in Friday’s practice.

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The good news for Jones is that he has an additional day of rest/ramp-up because the Packers don’t play until Monday night. Additionally, his specific injury — an MCL sprain — heals well on its own with conservative treatment. Despite healing well without much intervention, though, MCL sprains can have a pretty significant impact on players like Jones, who rely on a lot of lateral movement to be productive.

The MCL sits on the inside of the knee. Primarily, it works to keep the knee from bending too far inward. If you’re able, shift your knees to the left and right like you’re trying to avoid being tackled. Unless you went crazy with this example, you probably won’t feel much strain, but the more force you put behind the movement, the harder the MCL has to work. Now, imagine you get paid a few million dollars to not get tackled easily and you’ll quickly understand the load that the MCL can support when fully healthy. You don’t want to put that same load on the MCL if it’s not 100%.

Back to Jones, he’s not going to be 100% before Monday but he is ramping up to a point where he could be considered playable if you don’t have other options.

Q: What the heck is going on with D’Andre Swift’s possible injury? And do you think Kenneth Gainwell is the clear next man up, or do you see the potential for Rashaad Penny to come out of the shadows? — Montgomery O.

There’s been no confirmation on what sent Swift to the medical tent in Week 13, but the good news is he appears to be fine. He wasn’t listed on this week’s injury report and he was a full participant in Wednesday’s walk-through. All signs point to him playing in Week 14.

As for the mystery injury, based on video of the hit, it was likely an injury to the head, shoulder, or chest. If it were a head injury (concussion), it would have been made clear by the team right away. A shoulder injury can be diagnosed fairly well on the sidelines, whether it’s by a Crank test to check the labrum or a Load and Shift test to check the stability of the shoulder — there are a lot of options that can be performed by medical staff to get a good idea on the initial health of the shoulder. A chest/rib injury can take more time to diagnose, with tests like x-rays, MRIs, and CT scans being used to assess damage. There are no reports he underwent any imaging, so it’s unlikely to be anything serious on that front either.

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Ultimately, we’re left to our best guess when it comes to Swift. Given the lack of reports or updates, he more than likely got the wind knocked out of him and needed to get off the field as a result.

Q: Do you expect the shoulder sprain to significantly affect Puka Nacua? — Unknown

From a performance standpoint, not so much, but he may miss a game depending on how the Rams want to approach his rehab. I’ll get into how an AC sprain could impact production in a bit, but the thing Los Angeles wants to avoid is Nacua taking another shot that causes more damage to the shoulder.

From a performance standpoint, the big thing to look for is if he can lift his arm above his head to catch a ball. If he can’t, his catch radius shrinks, impacting production. Otherwise, there isn’t much concern.

A somewhat recent example is Julio Jones back in 2019. He suffered an AC joint sprain in Week 12 against the Buccaneers. He was questionable heading into Week 13 against the Saints and ultimately missed that game. Jones returned in Week 14 and played in Atlanta’s final four games of the season, racking up another 35 receptions for 444 yards and two touchdowns.

Nacua’s metrics aren’t great right now, with a High Injury Risk and a Below Average Health Performance Factor. He won’t reach Optimal Recovery this week, either.

Q: Any chance Jonathan Taylor plays in Week 15? — Josh B.

Based on all the information currently available, Taylor could be back in Week 15, but that’s on the early side of what we usually see with injuries like his. Taylor is dealing with a UCL injury in his thumb. It required surgery, which generally sees a timeline of around 2-4 weeks.

The UCL is a ligament at the base of the thumb. It plays a major role in the overall stability of the thumb itself, but it works especially hard during any sort of motion that involves grasping something. Fun fact: an injury to the UCL is sometimes referred to as “skier’s thumb” because of how skiers grip their poles when they fall on outstretched arms.

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Because the UCL does a lot to maintain grip strength, one thing the Colts will look for with Taylor is how well he can carry the ball, catch the ball, and hold blocks. If he’s struggling with any of those, he shouldn’t return.

Q: I have Darren Waller and Christian Kirk on my roster and our playoffs begin this week. I have a bye, but I’m wondering when will these two players be back and what can I expect from them? — Mark D.

Unfortunately, Kirk appears to be done for the year. He’s expected to undergo core muscle surgery and is likely to miss 6-8 weeks. As for Waller, we don’t expect him to return until Week 15 at the earliest.

The specifics of Kirk’s injury aren’t known right now, but core muscle surgery is a procedure meant to address any sort of sports hernia or tearing of abdominal muscles. In Kirk’s case, he likely suffered a rupture of the rectus abdominis, which originates at the pubic crest in the groin area and runs all the way up to the sternum. If you’ve seen the video of Kirk getting injured, you can see he grabs towards his groin.

Waller, on the other hand, is continuing to work his way back from yet another hamstring injury. He missed the requisite four games after being placed on IR and had an additional week off thanks to New York’s Week 14 bye. Unfortunately, given his history with these sorts of injuries, five weeks is not enough to feel confident in him. His metrics indicate he has another 10 days before reaching Optimal Recovery, while his Injury Risk is still High. The good news for Waller is that his Health Performance Factor is Peak.

When Waller is back, his production should be back to pre-injury levels. Even then, the quarterback situation in New York has left a lot to be desired, so we wouldn’t suggest holding out too much hope for a big game out of him.

Q: Dallas Goedert’s prospects in the next couple weeks are something I’ve been keeping an eye on. — Anonymous U.

Goedert is currently trending towards a return in Week 14 after logging a full practice on Thursday.

Arm fractures like the one Goedert suffered generally don’t come with the long term elevated Injury Risk the way lower body injuries do. This is because the upper limbs are much easier to protect. Goedert can wear a cast or brace with minimal impact on mobility, meaning if there were to be a situation where he wanted to protect his arm, he should be able to with no problem.

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He’s reached Optimal Recovery, his Injury Risk is steadily dropping, and his Health Performance Factor is solidly in Peak territory. All things considered, we expect pre-injury levels of production moving forward.

(Photo of Aaron Jones: Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)