UFC 290 is a stacked card with some incredible matchups throughout. We have two title fights. One in the featherweight division between Alexander Volkanovski and Yair Rodríguez as well as the flyweight title between Brandon Moreno and Alexandre Pantoja. I’ll be breaking both of those down here, as well as another fun card on the prelims.

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If you want full breakdowns for all the fights on the slate, feel free to check out my site DailyFanMMA, or follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley for more information.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodríguez

I have newfound respect for Volkanovksi after watching him compete with Islam Makhachev, and although he fell just short of claiming the lightweight championship, he’s proven himself as one of the undoubted pound-for-pound best in the sport today.

Volkanovski will return to the featherweight division this weekend to face Rodríguez, who’s earned back-to-back finishes and recently impressed with a second-round submission victory against Josh Emmett.

This will still be a major step up in competition for Rodríguez, and I’d argue he’ll need to have the best performance of his career to dethrone the current champion.

Rodríguez currently lands 4.78 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.03 at a 53 percent defensive rate. His best weapons are his kicks from range, without question. He was slamming them into Josh Emmett last time out, and he should be able to compete with most fighters in this division in that specific range.

The problem has mostly been outside of that range. Or should I say, on the inside, where Rodríguez is more vulnerable defensively, and liable to be taken down. I will excuse Rodríguez for absorbing 230 significant strikes against Max Holloway, but it’s harder to excuse the three takedowns Holloway landed.

It’s also harder to excuse how dominant Frankie Edgar was on the mat against Rodríguez, and Jeremy Stephens had success too. Most recently, Emmett landed two takedowns.

Rodríguez found a way to submit Emmett from his back but it’s just not a spot I feel comfortable with, and fighting a strong wrestler like Volkanovski will be dangerous for him.

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Volkanovski lands 1.52 takedowns per 15 minutes, which isn’t a ton, but he’s landed four and three takedowns in recent matchups that he has won. This is an obvious spot for him to attack Rodríguez on the mat.

And we’ve seen Volkanovski get purple-faced and nearly submitted by Brian Ortega, who is a far superior submission grappler to Rodríguez, and that gives me some confidence Volkanovski would survive any attacks here. His top game, and ground-and-pound are very good, and he should be able to control Rodríguez for several minutes if he pursues wrestling with any urgency.

On the feet, Volkanovski’s metrics are very strong too, and he lands 6.35 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.40 at a 59 percent defensive rate.

Rodríguez will still attack him with kicks, to the body and head, and Volkanovski will eat them being five inches shorter. But Volkanovski is generally defensively sound, and will share the same reach as Rodríguez. He’ll attack with leg kicks I’d guess, which is his longest weapon, and the jab.

He’s a better boxer on the inside and that’s where takedowns will come into play too. I’d guess Volkanovski will fight more aggressively here as part of his game plan. I have to project him to have success in doing so, earn the edge on rounds overall, and take the victory.

With that said, if Rodríguez can defend takedowns, he has a legitimate chance here. He can throw strikes at a high pace, and he’s dangerous at kicking distance. I trust Volkanovski far more in the championship rounds, but while Rodríguez is fresh, he could absolutely remain competitive on the feet. And who knows, maybe he lands something big and finds a stunning stoppage like Leon Edwards.

On BetMGM, Volkanovski is -400 to win, which is an implied win rate of 80 percent, and I don’t necessarily see value on either side of the moneyline.

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We’ve had success with this strategy in the past, but I see the most value on lines for an extended matchup. Volkanovski is super durable, as is Rodríguez. Volkanovski by decision is +125, which I think has value. I would lean toward the over 3.5 rounds prop at -150 if you want a shorter sweat.

Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja

We’ll see Moreno and Pantoja square off for the third time on Saturday. The pair will settle the score on what has been a very underrated trilogy.

How many times can you remember a trilogy where the current champion and betting line favorite has lost both previous matchups? That’s what we have here with the current flyweight champion Moreno as a -190 favorite on BetMGM.

The first fight came on The Ultimate Fighter in 2016, which doesn’t count as official, but Pantoja did submit Moreno in the third round by rear naked choke. Moreno was 22 years old, and he was the No. 16 seed in the tournament, fighting Pantoja who was the No. 1 seed.

And Moreno gave a good account of himself, and both eventually found their place in the UFC.

Pantoja defeated him a second time in the UFC in 2018, this time by decision. Moreno fought well early and even took Pantoja down and took his back, but he couldn’t establish control. He later got beaten up with ground-and-pound, and then was outclassed on the feet in Rounds 2 and 3.

In reality, there’s a real possibility here that Pantoja is just going to beat Moreno more often than not, and this betting line could be a mistake.

Moreno is 29 years old now though. He’s been through wars with Deiveson Figueiredo, and has improved drastically since he was actually cut from the promotion after losing to Pantoja the second time.

Pantoja is 33 years old now, still winning, but perhaps not showing his prime self. He’s an elite back-taker for sure, and a very solid round-winning muay thai striker.

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Pantoja lands 4.25 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.38 at a 54 percent defensive rate. He carries speed in his strikes, and can inflict damage. I trust him more when his cardio is fresh though, in the early rounds, and I do worry about him late in matchups, especially in a high-paced one like this.

While Pantoja is a sick submission grappler, he’s not the best wrestler, and he only lands 1.37 takedowns per 15 minutes. That’s not a horrible number but it’s all in context. He found his way to the back of Moreno in the first fight, in a scramble, as opposed to a pure takedown. He also beat Moreno up on the mat in the second fight after Moreno fell down.

Pantoja can land a takedown here or there, but he rarely lands two takedowns in a fight, and Moreno is pretty solid defensively. Pantoja can still find his way to the back in other situations besides the takedown, and he’ll have finishing potential from there, but I don’t think his path to easy control on the mat is here.

On the other side, Moreno is a very good wrestler and averages 1.80 takedowns per 15 minutes, and it’s been one of his bigger weapons in recent years. He hasn’t had success against Pantoja though.

He actually took him down and took his back in the second fight, but only for a brief second. I do actually believe he can take Pantoja down here, but I am not confident he can easily hold him down or make much of it.

Perhaps in the latter rounds, when Pantoja is tired, Moreno could get on top and dominate. But I don’t know if he has an easy path to success on the mat either.

On the feet, Moreno is a dangerous striker but only lands 3.55 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.19 at a 56 percent defensive rate. When pushed, he can be reckless and it’s cost him before.

Pantoja can strike at a high pace, and if he pushes Moreno again, he could land effectively, hurt Moreno, or take rounds. He clearly won the stand-up battle last time, and I don’t feel comfortable saying Moreno easily wins it this time.

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I do believe in the five years since they last competed Moreno has gotten better and will give a good showing of himself. I prefer his game and cardio over 25 minutes, and I do think he’s a better wrestler. Pantoja has a good style to test Moreno though, especially early on, and I consider him a live underdog in this fight.

I don’t think I’d personally chase any bets on this fight, but I have seen a lot of love for Pantoja at +160, which is an implied win rate of 38.46 percent. If I had to choose, I would lean toward his side of the moneyline, though I will be picking Moreno to win.

I’m also not comfortable in betting totals here because I could see an extended matchup or a finish. Moreno could easily hurt Pantoja at some point and Pantoja could find a way to submit Moreno early. I think I will mostly enjoy this fight as a fan.

Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield

There aren’t many competitive betting lines on this card, but one of my favorites is a pick’em rematch between Jimmy Crute and Alonzo Menifield. These two fought to a draw in 2023, and Crute lines up as a -120 favorite in the matchup this weekend.

I have been high on Crute at times, but now, after getting burned a few times, I think I know who he is and what he’s capable of. And I’m ready to get burned again.

He’s a good wrestler, who averages 5.16 takedowns per 15 minutes, and a quality submission grappler. I do not trust him unless he can dominate wrestling exchanges though.

And he’s facing an opponent in Menifield who holds seven first-round finishes in the UFC and Dana White’s Contender Series, but struggles in extended matchups when he uses energy.

Honestly, this rematch between Crute and Menifield should be lined competitively, and I can make the case for both sides, but I do slightly favor the grappling skills of Crute over three rounds. It was a clear striker vs. grappler matchup the first time, and that’s how I see it playing out for a second time.

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Crute has worked on his boxing, but he is not a comfortable striker and he gets hurt badly often. Even in very brief striking exchanges, Menifield hurt Crute badly, multiple times, and I wouldn’t have argued if the ref stepped in to stop the contest.

While there is a lot of variance in fighting, especially striking, Menifield can clearly hurt Crute once again and I would not be surprised to see him win by KO in Round 1.

However, I historically favor wrestling and cardio, which should favor Crute, who landed six takedowns in the last matchup. He almost won by submission as well, and had dominant positions several times.

Once Menifield landed some big strikes, it left him extremely tired and the takedowns from Crute came easier. It just showed me that Menifield not only needs to keep the fight standing, and hurt Crute to win, but he also has to do it quickly before Crute’s grappling wears him down.

I’d be pretty surprised if this fight replicated the last one and went the distance, unless the two fight much more cautiously. The over/under is set at -115 on both sides of 1.5 rounds, and I would lean toward the under here personally.

Both sides are just so vulnerable in each other’s area of strength, and a finish seems likely to occur, and probably early. I don’t hate taking a shot on Menifield by KO either, which is priced at +175, and seems like the far most likely outcome for him if he wins at all.

That’s all for this week. Thanks for the support as usual and let me know in the comment section below if you have any thoughts about other fights this week!

(Photo of Alexander Volkanovski: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)