When Japan takes the field Monday in Miami, the team will bring with them a wave of momentum.

The most anticipated game in the Pacific half of the World Baseball Classic bracket, Japan versus Korea, drew a reported 62 million television viewers in Japan alone, even as their rivalry wilted in a blowout. And the expectations swirling around Japan have only grown since then after the Samurai dominated their way into the semifinals. Mexico, however, presents Team Japan’s toughest test since their win over Korea.

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Behind a strong rotation and a lineup led by Rays star Randy Arozarena, Mexico has engineered a surprise run to the semifinals, the first time it has advanced this far in the WBC. Let’s face it: With games against China, Australia, the Czech Republic and then Italy in the quarterfinals, Japan has had it easy. They’re probably still the favorite, but with wins over the U.S. and Puerto Rico, Mexico is more battle-tested.

Here’s how the matchup breaks down.

How to watch: Airing on Monday, March 20 at 7 p.m. ET on FS1

Starting pitchers: Patrick Sandoval vs. Roki Sasaki

Japan

What happened in the quarterfinal? Shohei Ohtani was throwing 102 mph and what did Italy have to look forward to? Yu Darvish pitching in relief. Bummer. Long story short, Japan dominated in Tokyo, winning 9-3. Even though Ohtani got a little loose in the fifth inning and Mike Piazza’s team cut their deficit to two, Japan bounced right back in the bottom half. And Darvish pitched as a reliever for the first time since 2010 in a runaway.

That’s what they’ve done all tournament. The Samurai are the best pitching team (1.80 ERA) and best hitting team (.996 OPS) in the WBC. Ohtani is one of the two or three best players in the tourney, if not the best. He alone might have been enough to push Japan through the lighter half of the bracket into Miami. But after him, Japan is still stacked. Right fielder Kensuke Kondoh is 7-for-18 with four doubles and a homer. First baseman Kazuma Okamoto is right behind after his three-run homer gave them a 4-0 lead on Italy. Left fielder Mastaka Yoshida of the Red Sox has 10 RBIs. Pitchers Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki each struck out eight batters in their lone appearances. Everything is humming for Japan.

#カーネクスト2023WBC東京プール
準々決勝・イタリア戦の円陣声出しは #ヌートバー 選手！

▼侍ジャパン試合速報#侍ジャパン #WorldBaseballClassic

— 野球日本代表 侍ジャパン 公式 (@samuraijapan_pr) March 16, 2023

Who’s been the MVP? At the risk of being too obvious, Ohtani is crushing everything in his path. His 8 2/3 innings pitched trail only Roenis Elías, Lance Lynn, Marcus Stroman and Julio Urías, who have all pitched 9. And hitters have just a .161 average against him. He’s averaging just more than one baserunner every two innings. And at the plate, Ohtani is 7-for-16 with a homer and three doubles along with eight (8!) walks. He’s living on base. Oh, and he also bunted for a single against Italy, because why not?

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Digging for an explanation for Ohtani’s brilliance is a wasted effort. The answers are obvious. Let him explain:

“I see the reaction of the hitters and I thought he was sitting on my off-speed pitch. That’s why I threw hard,” Ohtani said after the quarterfinal. “If I hit, we try to score more than the opponent. If I pitch, I like to minimize their runs. That’s it.”

102 MPH FROM SHOHEI OHTANI 🔥🇯🇵

📺: WBC on FS2

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) March 16, 2023

How does their pitching set up? As the second entrant into the semifinals after Cuba, Japan’s pitching staff had plenty of time to rest and recover. They will need it, having traveled from Tokyo to Miami. But they’ll have more than four days to get right. By rotation, Ohtani sets up better for Tuesday’s championship game (if Japan makes it that far) along with Darvish, who threw the equivalent of a bullpen session in relief in their previous game.

For Monday’s semifinal, then, Japan will turn to 21-year-old phenom Roki Sasaki, who struck out eight in just 3 2/3 innings last week against the Czech Republic. Sasaki will draw a throng of scouts to Miami, eager to see him up close. He first landed on the radar of MLB teams as a high school star in Japan. He now throws an advanced sinkerball and the kind of fastball that can grow into an overpowering pitch. He’s already hit 102 mph. Sasaki is not yet eligible to leave his contract with the Chiba Lotte Marins in NPB, but would certainly attract free-agent attention if he’s posted in the coming years.

“I have such an honor as a manager to have such depth of pitchers,” Japan skipper Hideki Kuriyama said. “Not only for our starters but also the second starters for us, they are great. Most of our people are capable of pitching at the major-league level. That’s what I believe.”

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Mexico

What happened in the quarterfinal? A big, whoppin’ comeback! Mexico starter Julio Urías allowed four runs to Puerto Rico in the first inning, but then Urías and a bevy of relievers were nails the rest of the way. That still left a big mountain to climb, and Mexico had its crampons on. Isaac Paredes launched a solo homer in the second off Marcus Stroman. Alex Verdugo came up with a bases-loaded single in the fifth to score another run. Then came a furious two-out rally in the seventh.

The bases were loaded and Puerto Rico brought in reliever Jorge Lopez to secure the final out of the inning and protect a two-run lead. But Paredes fought off a 97 mph sinker for a soft single that drove in two to tie the game. The next batter, Luis Urías, was jammed inside on a 96 mph pitch, but it nonetheless resulted in a 62.6 mph single to left to put Mexico ahead.

Puerto Rico made a push in the ninth, putting two aboard with two outs against Mexico closer Giovanny Gallegos — although a bunted pop-up from Martín Maldonado didn’t help — but Gallegos froze Enrique Hernández with a slider over the heart of the plate for a game-ending strikeout.

Who’s been the MVP? It’s Randy Arozarena, and it’s hardly close. Joey Meneses may have clubbed two big home runs against the U.S. in pool play, but Arozarena has been the most consistent force atop the Mexico lineup. He’s gotten onboard in each of Mexico’s games but one, and he’s batted .471/.625/.941 in five games. His five doubles lead the tournament, and his wall-crashing catch in the eighth inning against Puerto Rico was both game-saving and instantly meme-able.

If the 2020 World Series wasn’t a coming-out party for Arozarena, then this tournament should be. Hopefully, he’ll finish with more than 20,000 followers on Twitter.

How does their pitching set up? There are two games left to win, and Mexico has three legitimate major-league starters left to pitch. But for this game, they’ll remain in order. Angels left-hander Patrick Sandoval pitched against the U.S. in Mexico’s thrilling upset, and he’ll take on a Japan lineup that is more left-handed than many of the teams in the tournament. After having struck out Angels teammate Mike Trout last week, he’ll get his crack at Ohtani tonight.

What to do with the other two starters, José Urquidy and Taijuan Walker? Urquidy, the Astros starter, was solid in a win over Canada and has big-game experience having pitched in a World Series. Walker, who signed with the Phillies this winter for four years and $72 million, dominated Great Britain in pool play. One will need to start the final, should Mexico advance, and the other could stand in reserve as long relief. Mexico manager Benji Gil could call upon that arm tonight if he needs it, but it’s worth noting that coming off an off day, Mexico’s bullpen should be fully rested.

(Top image: Eamonn Dalton / The Athletic; Photo of Joey Meneses: Daniel Shirey / Getty Images; Photo of Team Japan: Gene Wang / Getty Images)