Right away under coach Doug Pederson, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence showed improvement when it came to playing the position the traditionally “right” way — beating blitzes with hot throws and quickly taking what the defense gave him, with occasional flashes of the elite talent that made him such a highly touted prospect sprinkled in. That’s what I wrote about after Week 3, only for Lawrence to then endure an up-and-down five-game stretch in which he threw four touchdowns to five interceptions and reignited debate about the No. 1 overall pick’s ceiling.

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My expectation for Lawrence this season was to improve and look better than average a year removed from the cesspool Urban Meyer created. Show proof of development and a solid baseline, and I still would have been bullish on Lawrence’s future. But since that middling five-game stretch — during which the Jaguars went 0-5, losing every game by one score — Lawrence has more than cleared that bar. It’s time to reset expectations for the timeline of his development because it looks like he can reach elite levels sooner than later.

What’s changed for Lawrence? He is now comfortable enough operating Pederson’s system that he can go beyond just doing that. With the trust that his play caller will put him and his teammates in the right places, that his protection will hold up, that his improved crop of receivers will be in the right place and that his defense can make stops, Lawrence is free to let his talent take over.

The Jaguars have won four of their past six games with Lawrence playing like one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks, and he’s done it against some of the league’s best defenses. In its past six games, Jacksonville has beaten the Ravens on a two-point conversion with 18 seconds left in the game and overcome two 17-point deficits, including in Sunday’s overtime win against the Cowboys. Since Week 9, the Jaguars rank eighth in points per drive (2.36) and seventh in EPA per drive. Prior to that, they ranked 16th in points per drive (1.96) and 12th in EPA per drive. More importantly, the Jaguars, who face the Jets on Thursday night, went from being 3-14 last season to potentially finishing with a winning record and a playoff berth this season.

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One of the most encouraging parts about Lawrence’s play of late is that he’s making uncommon plays within the structure of the offense. He understands what defenses are doing and can manipulate them with his eyes before beating them with his arm talent.

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Week 12, 10:29 remaining in the second quarter, second-and-10

On this play, the Jaguars lined up in empty with Christian Kirk in the slot and running back JaMycal Hasty lined up outside of him. Kirk ran a speed out while Hasty ran a fade.

The defense appeared to be playing either quarters or man-match Cover 2 to Kirk and Hasty’s side. Lawrence gave a subtle pump fake to Kirk, which triggered the corner to bite on him. The safety should have gotten ready to get on top of Hasty, but maybe he didn’t believe Lawrence could make the throw or didn’t think he would attempt it to a running back.

Lawrence didn’t have much room to work with, but he pinned a perfectly layered throw to Hasty and hit him in-stride 25 yards downfield.

.@TrevorLawrencee delivers a strike to JaMycal Hasty! @Jaguars take the lead.

📺: #BALvsJAX on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+

— NFL (@NFL) November 27, 2022

Lawrence is similar to Justin Herbert in that he has rare movement skills for a man of his size (6-6, 213 pounds) but prefers to play in the pocket. Lately, though, he has been willing to use his legs more to buy time, and he’s made some huge plays in difficult situations because of it. One of Lawrence’s biggest areas of improvement has been his play out of rhythm. According to TruMedia, from Weeks 1-8, Lawrence ranked 27th in EPA per dropback on throws after three seconds or longer; since then, he ranks ninth.

Week 14, 9:51 remaining in the third quarter, third-and-7

The Jaguars had a man coverage beater called, with two crossers coming from Lawrence’s left and a post coming from the right. Receiver Jamal Agnew shifted into the backfield before motioning to the left side of the formation to run a flat route.

The defense dropped into a Cover 2 zone and had the crossers and Agnew in the flat all well covered. Lawrence might have been able to hit the post down the middle of the field, but edge pressure got to him as the route was developing.

Lawrence stepped up and then flushed out to his left to avoid the rush. Initially, Agnew was covered by a corner clouding to his side, but when Lawrence broke the pocket, Agnew wheeled up the sideline. He was still well covered, but Lawrence made a remarkable back-shoulder throw while running to his left.

Usually, to throw accurately to their weak side, right-handed quarterbacks have to rotate to point their front shoulder to the target, which takes time. But Lawrence has shown that he can throw pinpoint darts while keeping his shoulders square.

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Pederson takes full advantage of Lawrence’s ability to target every area of the field and frequently has him throw out-breaking routes. This Lawrence heat chart from TruMedia shows he has distributed the ball to all areas of the field.

Week 15, 1:28 remaining in the third quarter, third-and-10

On Lawrence’s third touchdown pass against the Cowboys, Dallas gave the appearance that it was in pure man coverage by having the nickel follow Kirk all the way across the formation.

After the snap, the Cowboys dropped into a man-match coverage with the safety to Marvin Jones’ side “poaching” (looking to cover) the No. 3 receiver (furthest inside and deepest after the route distribution) crossing to his side of the field.

After peeking at the safety, Lawrence knew Jones had a true one-on-one and attacked it.

Corner Kelvin Joseph had outside leverage on Jones, so Jones had to fight through to get outside. He did so, but without much separation. With Micah Parsons running into his front leg, Lawrence was still able to throw a strike into tight coverage for a touchdown.

Here come the @Jaguars!

Back-to-back @trevorlawrencee TDs have the Jags within 3.

📺: #DALvsJAX on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+

— NFL (@NFL) December 18, 2022

Lawrence looks to be processing much faster this year. His percentage of throws in 2.5 seconds or under has increased by more than 15 percentage points from last season to this season. He’s playing with poise within the pocket, and even when the picture isn’t perfect, he exhausts his progressions and doesn’t panic.

Week 15, 10:29 remaining in the fourth quarter, third-and-3

This play was designed for Zay Jones to create a natural rub inside to get Kirk open in the flat.

The Cowboys switched off the routes. Lawrence looked at Kirk but saw the corner sitting on top of him. The initial defender on Kirk took a couple of steps too far outside, though, and Jones made a heads-up play by sliding inside away from him.

Lawrence didn’t panic when he saw Kirk covered. Instead, he looked to Jones and threw him open. He put the ball right where you want to in the red zone: facemask or higher.

It was 27-10… The @Jaguars now have the lead!

📺: #DALvsJAX on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+

— NFL (@NFL) December 18, 2022

Down three points with twelve seconds left in the game and one timeout remaining, Jacksonville needed about 10 more yards to get into field goal range. The Jaguars thought the Cowboys were going to bring pressure and called a play that turned out not to be ideal for how the Cowboys lined up. Every route was covered, but Lawrence broke the pocket, bought time for a receiver to open up and threw a strike running to his left.

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“It was third down, and we get up there and (the Cowboys defense is) bringing cover zero, and then they call a timeout,” Lawrence said after the game. “Obviously, they’re bringing pressure, so you got to kind of figure out what play you want to get in, so I was kind of assessing that. They call a timeout, gives us time. Then they check out of it. They go out. They go single high. They went zone. I thought it was man, so I got my man concept going on the other side, and (the coverage) wasn’t man, so I got kind of stuck there. So I scrambled, and then Zay (Jones) did a great job just making himself available.”

0:12 remaining in the fourth quarter, third-and-3

The Cowboys did bring pressure, but it wasn’t the all-out pressure that the Jaguars were expecting based on the look that Dallas lined up in before the timeout. After the timeout, the Cowboys showed pressure but backed out of it. The Jaguars had a smash concept (corner route from the slot with an underneath route) to one side and a switch release on the other side that Lawrence wanted to go to against pressure.

Though Lawrence said the Cowboys were in zone coverage on the play, they were actually in man coverage with Trevon Diggs on Zay Jones. (Lawrence might have gotten confused because of how the Cowboys took away the crosser, and he hadn’t reviewed the film prior to his post-game press conference.) Right after the snap, Lawrence looked to Jones, likely just to look off the safety. Diggs had outside leverage and had the route smothered anyways.

Lawrence looked inside to the crosser, but the robber took it away, which probably got him thinking the defense was in zone coverage. At this moment, the initial play call was dead. This is why the ability to create is coveted in quarterbacks today. Lawrence felt space opening to his left and broke in that direction.

As Lawrence broke left, Zay Jones smartly curled his corner route inside and got free from Diggs. The robber floated in that direction, but Lawrence was able to get the ball over his outstretched hands and hit Jones right in between the numbers while running to the left to get the Jaguars into field goal range.

Digging out of a 17-point deficit against one of the league’s best defenses requires plays like this, in which the quarterback finds a way to get a bucket no matter what. Lawrence has done that over and over again in recent weeks, and if he keeps it up, he just might be turning the corner from competent to elite.

(Top photo: Melina Myers / USA Today)